Treasury
Liquidity Command
Not one cash number. Cash by tier of claim, by institution, by scenario, and across the next four months with an honest band around it.
Available cash
$3.40M
After restricted and committed
Deployable after waterfall
$405.00K
Free once every tier above is funded
Minimum cash range
$1.32M – $2.20M
Central $1.76M
Cash conversion cycle
37 days
+18 days · $543.60K of working capital
Cash curve
Daily granularity with a widening confidence band. Built from eight components, not from a single trend line.
Lowest projected
$3.17M
Floor breach (central)
No breach in horizon
Earliest / latest
— / —
Liquidity waterfall
Cash is claimed in tiers. Only what survives every tier is deployable.
1Immediate obligations
$486.00K
Payroll, taxes and payables due within 14 days
2Operating reserve
$1.18M
Policy floor — six months of fixed operating cost
3Tax reserve
$420.00K
Restricted; accrued estimated taxes held separately
4Debt obligations
$304.00K
Next twelve months of scheduled principal and interest
5Strategic reserve
$600.00K
Board-designated for opportunity and downside
6Deployable capital
$825.00K
Free to allocate after every tier above is satisfied
Minimum cash
A range, not a single number. Any point estimate here would imply precision the inputs do not support.
Low
$1.32M
Central
$1.76M
High
$2.20M
4.5–7.5 months of total fixed, variable and debt outflow, widened for revenue volatility and customer concentration
Fixed monthly expenses
$196,800
Variable expenses
$71,400 average
Revenue volatility (180d)
9.4% coefficient of variation
Customer concentration
Top customer 18.8% of revenue
Receivable reliability
91% collected within terms + 15 days
Debt obligations
$25,300 monthly service
Seasonality
Q1 trough, ±4.5% swing
Stated risk tolerance
Conservative
Liquidity stress testing
Eight scenarios run against the same balance sheet. Select one to see when it bites and what closes the gap.
Minimum cash reached
−$4.55M
Runway
7.7 mo
Policy breach
2027-03-15
Mitigation required
$4.30M
Net of the $750k facility
Ranked mitigations
Draw on the approved credit facility
$750.00K
Costs 7.4% and consumes the buffer that exists for a worse scenario
Accelerate collections on 12 invoices past 45 days
$386.00K
Already contractually due; sequenced outreach, no discount offered
Defer the Q4 compute cluster expansion
$240.00K
Delays capacity headroom into Q1; engineering has flagged a throughput ceiling
Renegotiate payment timing with two large suppliers
$168.00K
Both were accommodating in Q2 — asking again has a relationship cost
Reduce discretionary spend for one quarter
$96.00K
Travel, events and non-critical tooling
Pull forward two late-stage renewals with an incentive
$214.00K
Discounting to accelerate cash permanently reduces contract value
The available mitigations do not fully close this gap. That is the finding, not a rounding error.
Treasury policy
Rules the business set, checked continuously — not at quarter end.
Minimum operating cash
$500,000 · actual $3,395,000 available
Treasury
Minimum runway
6 months · actual 15.8 months
CFO
Maximum single-bank exposure
40% of liquidity · actual 51.4% at First Meridian
Treasury
Maximum uninsured cash
$1,000,000 · actual $1,712,000
Treasury
Debt service coverage
≥ 1.50× · actual 2.31×
Controller
Tax reserve funded
100% of accrued · actual $420,000 of $420,000
Controller
Bank exposure
$3.07M uninsured across 4 institutions.
First Meridian Bank
$1.96M
51.4% of liquidity · $1.71M uninsured · A
CXR Bank — settlement
$1.13M
29.6% of liquidity · $878.00K uninsured · Internal
Harbor Trust
$512.00K
13.4% of liquidity · $262.00K uninsured · A−
Treasury money market
$213.00K
5.6% of liquidity · $213.00K uninsured · Government
Sweep recommendations
First Meridian operating → Treasury money market
$900.00K
Brings First Meridian under the 40% concentration limit and earns on idle balance
$41,400 annual · tp-3 · maximum single-bank exposure
Harbor Trust → Insured cash sweep programme
$262.00K
Reduces uninsured balance below the configured threshold
$9,800 annual · tp-4 · maximum uninsured cash
CXR Bank settlement → Operating reserve
$180.00K
Settlement float above what the next 14 days of obligations require
$6,200 annual · Liquidity waterfall tier 2
Working capital
Every lever carries a relationship and contract consequence. Two of these are legal and still not recommended.
Sequence outreach on the 12 invoices past 45 days
$386.00K
Highest release with no relationship cost; these are simply late.
Within contract terms — all invoices are past due
Offer 1.5/10 Net 45 to two slow-paying enterprise accounts
$214.00K
Implied annual cost of ~18% is below the value of certainty on this cash.
Requires an order-form amendment
Extend all supplier payments to the contractual last day
$168.00K
Legal, but three of these suppliers are single-source and were accommodating during the Q2 delay. Optimizing this to the day trades a durable relationship for short-term cash.
Permitted by terms
Release the excess hardware buffer built in Q2
$58.00K
Supply lead times normalized in July; the buffer is no longer justified.
No contractual constraint
Move new contracts to milestone billing
$240.00K
Structural DSO improvement rather than a one-time pull-forward.
Applies to new business only
Cash conversion cycle · 19 → 22 → 25 → 28 → 33 → 37 days
DSO +11d
Two enterprise customers moved from Net 30 to Net 45 at renewal
DIO +2d
Hardware buffer stock raised after the Q2 supply delay
DPO −5d
Early-discount capture shortens payables on purpose — this is a deliberate trade
Treasury opportunities
Found by comparing what the accounts do against what the agreements allow.
$1.11M sitting in non-interest operating accounts
$51.06K/yr
90-day average balance across two accounts, current money-market yield 4.6%
confidence 91%
Wire fees payable at negotiated tier not applied
$8.64K/yr
216 wires at $40 against the $10 contracted tier in the treasury agreement
confidence 88%
Four suppliers paid an average of 11 days early with no discount
$14.20K/yr
AP ledger, trailing 6 months, no discount terms on file
confidence 84%
Seven accounts where three would serve
$6.40K/yr
Maintenance fees plus reconciliation time across dormant accounts
confidence 66%
51.4% of liquidity at one institution
Risk
Bank exposure monitor — this is risk reduction, not yield
confidence 99%
Early warning
Metrics moving in a consistent direction, flagged before they hit a threshold.
AR aging
DSO +11 days over 6 months
Projected: Working capital policy, Q4 2026
Gross margin
−6.6 points since March
Projected: Contribution floor, Q1 2027
Cash conversion cycle
+9 days
Forecast error
MAPE 4.1% → 6.8%
Projected: Model review threshold reached
Customer concentration
14.2% → 18.8% top customer
Projected: Lender covenant at 25%
Expense growth vs revenue growth
Opex +18.4% vs revenue +22.1%
Observation → signal → interpretation
Kept separate on purpose. What happened, what it means, and what might follow are three different claims.
observation
DSO moved from 41 to 52 days over six months
CONFIRMED · AR ledger, invoice-level
Gross profit grew 9.2% while revenue grew 22.1%
CONFIRMED · Monthly income statement
Top customer share rose from 14.2% to 18.8%
CONFIRMED · Revenue by customer
signal
Receivable aging has deteriorated for six consecutive months
CONFIRMED · Monotonic trend across 6 periods
Gross margin has compressed 6.6 points since March
CONFIRMED · Computed from the same statements
Customer concentration is rising while new-logo growth slows
CONFIRMED · Two independent trends over 6 months
interpretation
If the trend continues, the cash conversion cycle absorbs roughly $332,000 more working capital by year end
LIKELY · Linear extrapolation of the last 6 points × daily revenue
Compression appears driven by the delivery-heavy mix of two new contracts rather than by pricing
HIGHLY SUPPORTED · Contract-level cost attribution
Concentration risk may become the binding constraint on debt capacity before liquidity does
POSSIBLE · Lender covenant language on customer concentration
Causal chains
Sales conversion decline is reaching liquidity
Trial-to-paid conversion fell 22.4% → 21.6%
Conversion · −0.8 pts · CONFIRMED
New-logo adds slowed to 6/month from 9
Customer count · −3/month · CONFIRMED
Revenue forecast reduced for Q4
Revenue forecast · −$186,000 · HIGHLY SUPPORTED
Cash forecast weakened over the 90-day horizon
Cash · −$142,000 · HIGHLY SUPPORTED
Runway shortened
Runway · −0.7 months · LIKELY
One chain, five metrics. Presented as a single causal narrative rather than five separate alerts.
Enterprise terms change is driving the working capital squeeze
Two enterprise renewals moved to Net 45
Payment terms · +15 days · CONFIRMED
DSO rose 41 → 52 days
DSO · +11 days · HIGHLY SUPPORTED
Cash conversion cycle lengthened
CCC · +9 days · CONFIRMED
Working capital absorbed additional cash
Working capital · −$271,800 · HIGHLY SUPPORTED
The terms concession was a deliberate commercial decision. Its working capital cost was not modelled at the time.