Simulation
Scenario & Monte Carlo Lab
Every scenario recalculates from the same system of record. Monte Carlo runs are seeded, so the same assumptions always produce the same distribution — this is a model, not a prediction.
Scenario
Best · Base · Stress · Custom
Revenue 0% · Expenses 0% against verified monthly figures.
Scenario Revenue
$474.10K
per month
Scenario Expenses
$400.10K
per month
Net Monthly
$74.00K
Generating
Shortfall Probability
0.0%
2,000 runs · 12 months
Monte Carlo Distribution
Seed 20260826 · 2,000 runs · reproducible
- P10 (downside)
- $2.02M
- Median
- $2.36M
- P90 (upside)
- $2.69M
Assumptions
- · Starting unrestricted cash 1465460 USD from verified account balances.
- · Monthly revenue 474100 USD, log-normal shock with measured volatility 15.9%.
- · Monthly expense 400100 USD, 5% dispersion from payroll and vendor variance.
- · Seed 20260826 — results are reproducible, not sampled fresh each render.
- · Scheduled one-off obligations beyond 90 days are excluded; they appear on the Financial Timeline.
Probability of breaching the reserve floor ($2.40M): 57.1%
Projected Cash Path
Confidence narrows near-term, widens with horizon.
- 7 days$1.28M$1.25M – $1.32M · 79%
- 14 days$1.23M$1.18M – $1.28M · 78%
- 1 months$1.35M$1.27M – $1.42M · 78%
- 2 months$767.26K$660.40K – $874.12K · 77%
- 3 months$841.26K$710.38K – $972.14K · 76%
- 6 months$1.91M$1.73M – $2.10M · 72%
- 1 years$2.37M$2.10M – $2.63M · 66%